{"id":4841,"date":"2016-09-10T23:27:52","date_gmt":"2016-09-10T15:27:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cusp.hk\/?p=4841"},"modified":"2016-09-10T23:28:51","modified_gmt":"2016-09-10T15:28:51","slug":"%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e5%8b%9d%e5%87%ba%ef%bc%8c%e4%bb%a5%e5%8f%8a%e7%82%ba%e7%94%9a%e9%ba%bc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cusp.hk\/?p=4841","title":{"rendered":"\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5982\u4f55\u52dd\u51fa\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u70ba\u751a\u9ebc"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u539f\u6587\uff1a<a href=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/indepth\/opinion\/2016\/08\/donald-trump-win-160804132811094.html\">How Donald Trump could win &#8211; and why<\/a><br \/>\n\u539f\u8f09\u65bc\u534a\u5cf6\u96fb\u8996\u53f0\u65b0\u805e\u7db2\uff08\u82f1\u6587\uff09\uff0c\u8a55\u8ad6<br \/>\n\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aRichard Seymour<br \/>\n\u8b6f\uff1a\u8983\u4fca\u57fa<br \/>\n\u65e5\u671f\uff1a5\/8\/2016<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u7de8\u6309\uff1a\u5728\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u9ad4\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u807d\u5230\u7684\u901a\u5e38\u5c31\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6709\u591a\u51fa\u4f4d\u591a\u8a87\u5f35\uff0c\u4f46\u5be6\u8cea\u7684\u5206\u6790\u537b\u662f\u8ca7\u4e4f\u975e\u5e38\u3002\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u8ac7\u7684\u662f\u7af6\u9078\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u56fa\u7136\u96e2\u4e0d\u958b\u8ff0\u53ca\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u82f1\u59ff\uff0c\u4f46\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u91cd\u9ede\u537b\u5728\u65bc\u6279\u8a55\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u300c\u9760\u650f\u4e2d\u9593\u300d\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u3002\u7576\u6211\u5011\u5c07\u9019\u5169\u500b\u4faf\u9078\u4eba\u5c0d\u6bd4\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u624d\u80fd\u770b\u5230\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u662f\u770b\u4f3c\u760b\u72c2\u7684\u7279\u6717\u666e\u80cc\u5f8c\u4e00\u91dd\u898b\u8840\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u770b\u4f3c\u5e73\u548c\u7684\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u4fdd\u5b88\u4ee5\u53ca\u653f\u6cbb\u6a5f\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5982\u4f55\u52dd\u51fa\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u70ba\u751a\u9ebc<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u52308\u500b\u6708\u524d\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u9817\u6709\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u54e1\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u5c0d\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u8de1\u8c61\u611f\u5230\u9ad8\u8208\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b56\u7565\u975e\u5e38\u6e05\u695a\u3002\u9001\u5225\u6851\u5fb7\u65af\uff0c\u53f3\u8f49\uff0c\u722d\u53d6\u300c\u6eab\u548c\u300d\u7684\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u652f\u6301\u8005\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u7b49\u5f85\u5927\u52dd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5979\u9080\u8acb\u63d0\u59c6\u51f1\u56e0\uff08Tim Kaine\uff09\u4f5c\u5176\u7af6\u9078\u62cd\u6a94\u5c31\u6b63\u6b63\u53cd\u6620\u8457\u9019\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u9817\u70ba\u7a31\u980c\u7684\u4fdd\u5b88\u5357\u65b9\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u54e1\u3002\u90a3\u500b\u5617\u8a66\u6a21\u4eff64\u5e74\u6642\u53cd\u9ad8\u83ef\u5fb7\u7684\u7af6\u9078\u5ee3\u544a\u4e5f\u662f\u9019\u500b\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u5c55\u73fe[1]\u3002\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u7684\u4e0d\u582a\uff0c\u9019\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u4ee4\u5979\u4e0a\u53f0\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5967\u5df4\u99ac\u6416\u6416\u6b32\u589c\u7684\u9078\u8209\u806f\u76df<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6b63\u5e38\u60c5\u6cc1\u9019\u5927\u6982\u884c\u5f97\u901a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7121\u8ad6\u5728\u91d1\u9322\u9084\u662f\u7d44\u7e54\u4e0a\u5747\u843d\u5f8c\u65bc\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1\u548c\u4f01\u696d\u6350\u6b3e\u4eba\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u50b3\u7d71\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u5747\u652f\u6301\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u7684\u53f3\u7ffc\u5a92\u9ad4\u6a5f\u5668\u5747\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\u653b\u64ca\u7279\u6717\u666e\u3002\u9078\u8209\u5730\u5716\u5c0d\u4ed6\u751a\u70ba\u4e0d\u5229\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u9810\u6e2c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u7e3d\u7968\u6578\u4e0d\u662f\u843d\u5f8c\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u7684\u9078\u7968\u7684\u5730\u57df\u5206\u4f48\u6703\u4ee4\u4ed6\u5728\u9078\u8209\u4eba\u5718\u5236\u5ea6\u4e2d\u5931\u5229[2]\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6709\u9451\u65bc\u6b64\uff0c\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u4fbf\u6253\u7b97\u627f\u7e7c\u5967\u5df4\u99ac\u7684\u9078\u8209\u806f\u76df\uff0c\u518d\u5617\u8a66\u5438\u7d0d\u4e00\u4e9b\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u652f\u6301\u8005\u7684\u9078\u7968\u3002\u4f46\u9019\u662f\u5426\u592a\u60f3\u7576\u7136\u4e86\uff1f\u73fe\u5be6\u6703\u5426\u662f\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u53ca\u5176\u652f\u6301\u8005\u932f\u8aa4\u5224\u65b7\u5f62\u52e2\uff0c\u5373\u5c07\u88ab\u7c97\u66b4\u5730\u559a\u9192\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u5967\u5df4\u99ac\u4efb\u671f\u5167\u7684\u65bd\u653f\u4ee4\u4ed6\u7684\u9078\u8209\u806f\u76df\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u7a69\u3002\u5de5\u8cc7\u6c92\u6709\u4e0a\u6f32\u3001\u653f\u5e9c\u958b\u652f\u7e2e\u6e1b\u3001\u7f3a\u4e4f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u57fa\u5efa\u6295\u8cc7\u2014\u2014\u9019\u4e9b\u90fd\u5f88\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u5728\u92b9\u5e36[3]\u7684\u5f97\u7968\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u6b63\u662f\u7279\u666e\u6717\u91dd\u5c0d\u7684\u5dde\u4efd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8aaa\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7968\u6e90\u662f\u300c\u767d\u4eba\u5de5\u4eba\u968e\u7d1a\u300d\uff0c\u4e0d\u55ae\u6709\u9ede\u9673\u8154\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u5927\u6e96\u78ba\u3002\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5f9e\u4e0d\u540c\u968e\u5c64\u5747\u62ff\u5230\u9078\u7968\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5176\u652f\u6301\u8005\uff08\u5728\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u521d\u9078\uff09\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6536\u5165\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc\u570b\u6c11\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u7121\u8ad6\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u78ba\u5be6\u662f\u6709\u4e00\u5927\u5806\u767d\u4eba\u5de5\u4eba\u652f\u6301\u4ed6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u7f8e\u570b\u79fb\u6c11\u53ca\u6d77\u95dc\u57f7\u6cd5\u5c40\uff08Immigration and Customs Enforcement\uff09\u7834\u7d00\u9304\u7684\u884c\u52d5\u6b21\u6578\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8b66\u5bdf\u66b4\u529b\u8d8a\u8da8\u56b4\u91cd\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u66fe\u652f\u6301\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u62d8\u6355\u8207\u9a45\u9010\u51fa\u5883\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5e74\u8f15\u7684\u9ed1\u4eba\u8207\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u5dde\u4eba\uff09\uff0c\u672a\u5fc5\u6703\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u975e\u767d\u4eba\u51fa\u4f86\u6295\u7968\u652f\u6301\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u73fe\u5728\uff0c\u54ea\u6015\u5c07\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u7684\u53cd\u5f48\u8a08\u7b97\u5728\u5167\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4ecd\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u6a5f\u6703\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u6e38\u96e2\u5dde\uff08swing states\uff09\u52dd\u51fa\uff0c\u5982\u79d1\u7f85\u62c9\u591a\u3001\u4fc4\u4ea5\u4fc4\u3001\u611b\u8377\u83ef\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u8cd3\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9e\u3002\u5728\u8cd3\u5dde\uff0c\u7a2e\u65cf\u6b67\u8996\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u76db\u884c\uff0c\u5e02\u6c11\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u6c92\u4fdd\u969c\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u90fd\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u4ee4\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8dd1\u8d0f\u3002\u57282012\u5e74\u6642\uff0c\u5967\u5df4\u99ac\u62ff\u4e0b\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6240\u6709\u5dde\u4efd\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u4e9b\u6e38\u96e2\u5dde\u5c0d\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4f86\u8aaa\u5df2\u662f\u89f8\u624b\u53ef\u53ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6c92\u6709\u8ab0\u6703\u70ba\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u611f\u5230\u9f13\u821e<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5a92\u9ad4\u8207\u65e2\u6709\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u529b\u91cf\u8d8a\u662f\u6279\u8a55\u7279\u6717\u666e\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u8d8a\u767c\u7372\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u652f\u6301\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u4ee4\u539f\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u968e\u5c64\u611f\u5230\u9a5a\u6115\u7684\u7a2e\u7a2e\u2014\u2014\u5e36\u6709\u7a2e\u65cf\u6b67\u8996\u3001\u6027\u5225\u6b67\u8996\u7684\u6311\u91c1\u3001\u8fd1\u4e4e\u6a6b\u883b\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u5439\u6367\u2014\u2014\u53cd\u800c\u6210\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u512a\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u770b\u770b\u4ed6\u5728\u5c0d\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u4eba\u767c\u8868\u6b67\u8996\u8a00\u8ad6\u4ee5\u5f8c\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u300c\u652f\u6301\u7387\u300d\u63d0\u5347\u4e86\uff0c\u9084\u5728\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u521d\u9078\u4e4b\u4e2d\u5927\u52dd\u3002\u67d0\u4e9b\u6b0a\u5a01\u5c08\u5bb6\u5982\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u5bb6\u65bd\u83ef\uff08Nate Silver\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8ced\u535a\u5e02\u5834\u5747\u6c92\u6709\u9810\u8a08\u5230\u9019\u7d50\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u54ea\u6015\u662f\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u652f\u6301\u7387\u4e0d\u600e\u9ebc\u597d\uff0c\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u4e5f\u597d\u4e0d\u5230\u4e86\u54ea\u88cf\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e0d\u55ae\u5145\u6eff\u504f\u898b\u800c\u4e14\u9811\u56fa\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u9760\u8b5c\uff0c\u88ab\u67d0\u4e9b\u4eba\u53ad\u6068\u4e5f\u5f88\u6b63\u5e38\uff1b\u4f46\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u7684\u5f31\u9ede\uff0c\u6b63\u6b63\u662f\u5979\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u7121\u6cd5\u88ab\u4fe1\u4efb\u3001\u88ab\u6536\u7de8\u4e86\u7684\u5efa\u5236\u6df7\u86cb\u3002\u5979\u7d93\u5e38\u8f15\u6613\u6539\u8b8a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u53c8\u6bcf\u6bcf\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u919c\u805e\u626f\u4e0a\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u7684\u9818\u5c0e\u5c64\u53c8\u7528\u76e1\u8fa6\u6cd5\u60f3\u4e0d\u8b93\u5979\u7684\u5c0d\u624b\u6851\u5fb7\u65af\u7684\u63d0\u540d\u2014\u2014\u9019\u4e9b\u90fd\u52a0\u5f37\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5370\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b63\u5982\u8457\u540d\u5c0e\u6f14\u8207\u4f5c\u8005\u7c73\u9ad8\u6469\u723e\u6240\u8a00\uff1a\u300c\u6c92\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u500b\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u652f\u6301\u8005\uff0c\u6e38\u96e2\u7684\u5247\u5c24\u751a\uff0c\u6703\u572811\u67088\u65e5\u9192\u4f86\uff0c\u5f88\u8208\u596e\u5730\u8d70\u51fa\u9580\u6295\u7968\u4e88\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u7279\u6717\u666e\u975e\u5e38\u660e\u767d\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u624d\u6703\u8d77\u4e86\u60e1\u7a31\u300c\u72e1\u8a50\u7684\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u300d\uff08Crooked Hilary\uff09[4]\u3002\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u7684\u5168\u570b\u4ee3\u8868\u5927\u6703\u5176\u9593\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u900f\u904e\u96fb\u8a71\u5411\u4ee3\u8868\u767c\u5ee3\u544a\u653b\u64ca\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\uff0c\u6307\u5979\u8207\u9ee8\u6a5f\u5668\u628a\u6301\u4e86\u9078\u8209\uff0c\u6307\u300c\u6851\u5fb7\u65af\u5f9e\u4f86\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e0d\u9867\u4e00\u5207<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u9084\u4e0d\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5438\u7d0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u652f\u6301\u8005\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4ed6\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u540c\u6642\u652f\u6301\u300c\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u5834\u300d\u3001\u798f\u5229\u5236\u5ea6\u3001\u9084\u6709\u4fdd\u8b77\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7b49\u4e92\u76f8\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u66fe\u6279\u8a55\u904e\u8de8\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5925\u4f34\u95dc\u4fc2\uff08Trans-Pacific Parternship, TPP\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u66fe\u8207\u74b0\u4fdd\u4efd\u5b50\u4e00\u8d77\u53cd\u5c0d\u6c34\u529b\u58d3\u88c2\uff08Fracking\uff09\uff0c\u63d0\u5021\u6bd4\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u9084\u591a\u4e00\u500d\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u57fa\u5efa\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u70ba\u91ab\u7642\u88dc\u52a9\u4fdd\u96aa\uff08Medicare\uff09\u548c\u793e\u6703\u4fdd\u969c[5]\u8faf\u8b77\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u9019\u4e9b\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u4ed6\u5c0d\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u6230\u722d\u7684\u6279\u8a55\uff0c\u56fa\u7136\u6703\u4ee4\u50b3\u7d71\u53f3\u6d3e\u611f\u5230\u9707\u6012\uff0c\u4f46\u537b\u80fd\u5438\u5f15\u5230\u67d0\u4e9b\u539f\u4f86\u652f\u6301\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u7684\u767d\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u4e00\u76f4\u5e0c\u671b\u9760\u650f\u653f\u6cbb\u5149\u8b5c\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\uff0c\u4f46\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u9019\u90e8\u4efd\u7684\u9078\u6c11\u5728\u90198\u5e74\u9593\u5df2\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u5c11\u3002\u7d93\u6fdf\u5012\u9000\uff0c\u6551\u52a9\u9280\u884c\uff0c\u751f\u6d3b\u8cea\u7d20\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u7834\u6557\u7684\u57fa\u5efa\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u6467\u6bc0\u4e86\u539f\u4f86\u7684\u300c\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u5834\u300d\u5f0f\u7684\u7ba1\u6cbb\u5171\u8b58[6]\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u820a\u6709\u7684\u9078\u8209\u806f\u76df\u5df2\u958b\u59cb\u65b7\u88c2\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u5247\u5c1a\u672a\u6210\u578b\u3002\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u827e\u5df4\u83ab\u7dad\u8332\uff08Alan Abramowitz\uff09\u6240\u5275\u7acb\u7684\u9078\u8209\u6a21\u578b\u63a8\u7b97\u51fa\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u592a\u904e\u904e\u4efd\uff0c\u4ed6\u61c9\u8a72\u5df2\u5728\u6c11\u8abf\u4e0a\u9818\u5148\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u5411\u4e2d\u9593\u9760\u650f\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u66fe\u4ee4\u5979\u7684\u4e08\u592b\u4e0a\u53f0\uff0c\u66fe\u4fc3\u6210\u5317\u7f8e\u81ea\u7531\u8cbf\u6613\u5354\u5b9a\uff0c\u4ea6\u66fe\u6467\u6bc0\u798f\u5229\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u73fe\u5728\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0d\u662f\u81f4\u52dd\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7576\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u4e0d\u9867\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u8981\u7559\u5728\u9019\u904e\u6642\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u5927\u9078\u5c31\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u638c\u63e1\u5728\u7279\u6717\u666e\u624b\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u7de8\u6ce8\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>[1] \u9ad8\u83ef\u5fb7\uff08Barry 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\/>\n\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u7576\u6642\u4fbf\u767b\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u76f8\u7576\u8457\u540d\u7684\u96fb\u8996\u5ee3\u544a\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u54e1\u7684\u7368\u767d\uff0c\u6307\u9ad8\u83ef\u5fb7\u76f8\u7576\u5371\u96aa\uff08\u5728\u7576\u6642\u7684\u51b7\u6230\u683c\u5c40\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u5f15\u767c\u6838\u6230\uff09\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u4e0d\u61c9\u9078\u51fa\u9ad8\u83ef\u5fb7\u4f5c\u70ba\u7e3d\u7d71\u5019\u9078\u4eba\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u6307\u51fa\u4ed6\u6703\u5728\u6295\u7968\u6642\u8f49\u6295\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u3002\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u91cd\u88fd\u9019\u500b\u5ee3\u544a\uff08\u751a\u81f3\u627e\u5230\u539f\u4f86\u7684\u6f14\u54e1\u98fe\u6f14\uff09\u5c31\u662f\u7528\u985e\u8fd1\u7684\u7406\u64da\u8207\u5c0d\u767d\u653b\u64ca\u7279\u6717\u666e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>[2] \u9078\u8209\u4eba\u5718\uff08Electoral College\uff09\u662f\u7af6\u9078\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u7684\u6a5f\u5236\u3002\u6bcf\u500b\u5dde\u4efd\u6703\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u6578\u91cf\u7684\u9078\u8209\u4eba\uff0c\u7372\u5f97\u6700\u591a\u9078\u8209\u4eba\u652f\u6301\u7684\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u5247\u6703\u52dd\u51fa\u3002\u9078\u8209\u4eba\u7684\u6295\u7968\u610f\u5411\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u7531\u5176\u6240\u5c6c\u5dde\u4efd\u7684\u6295\u7968\u610f\u5411\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u63a1\u53d6\u7684\u662f&#8221;Winner Takes All&#8221;\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u67d0\u5dde\u4efd\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u7532\u7372\u5f97\u6bd4\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u4e59\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7968\u6578\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u8a72\u5dde\u7684\u6240\u6709\u9078\u8209\u4eba\u5c07\u6703\u6295\u7968\u4e88\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u7532\u3002<br \/>\n\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u5373\u4f7f\u67d0\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u5f97\u7968\u6578\u76ee\u4e26\u4e0d\u4f4e\u65bc\u53e6\u4e00\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u537b\u6703\u56e0\u70ba\u9078\u7968\u5206\u4f48\u7684\u554f\u984c\u800c\u53d6\u5f97\u5f88\u5c11\u9078\u8209\u4eba\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n<p>[3] \u92b9\u5e36\uff08Rust Belt\uff09\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6771\u5317\u90e8\u7684\u524d\u5de5\u696d\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5730\u5e36\u3002\u4e0d\u5c11\u5831\u9053\u5747\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u92b9\u5e36\u7684\u5e02\u6c11\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6709\u8f49\u8b8a\u6295\u7968\u610f\u6b32\u7684\u8de1\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n<p>[4] \u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c07\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u8207\u51f1\u56e0\u7684\u60e1\u7a31\uff1aCrooked Hilary and Corrupt Kaine\u3002\u5982\u6587\u4e2d\u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u60f3\u5f37\u5316\u4ed6\u5011\u5c6c\u65bc\u65e2\u6709\u8150\u6557\u5efa\u5236\u7684\u5370\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n<p>[5] TPP\u662f\u8cbf\u6613\u5354\u8b70\uff0c\u88ab\u5de6\u7ffc\u6279\u8a55\u70ba\u5bcc\u4e86\u6709\u9322\u4eba\u3001\u82e6\u4e86\u6253\u5de5\u4ed4\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u653f\u7b56\uff1bMedicare\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u70ba65\u6b72\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8001\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u96aa\uff1bSocial Security\u5247\u662f\u985e\u4f3c\u5168\u6c11\u9000\u4f11\u4fdd\u969c\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u3002\u6b64\u6bb5\u4e4b\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u5927\u9ad4\u4e0a\u7684\u5f97\u76ca\u8005\u5747\u662f\u8ca7\u82e6\u5927\u773e\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u4f01\u696d\u8207\u5bcc\u4eba\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u90fd\u6703\u53cd\u5c0d\uff0c\u4f46\u7279\u6717\u666e\u537b\u504f\u504f\u4e0d\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u4e0a\uff0c\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u6703\u63d0\u51fa\u4e92\u76f8\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u85c9\u6b64\u5438\u7d0d\u4e0d\u540c\u968e\u5c64\u7684\u9078\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n<p>[6] \u7f8e\u570b\u4e00\u5411\u5949\u884c\u6240\u8b02\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6cbb\u570b\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u5927\u8cfa\u7279\u8cfa\u800c\u5e02\u6c11\u798f\u5229\u5c11\u3002\u4f46\u96a8\u8457\u751f\u6d3b\u554f\u984c\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u56b4\u91cd\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u4ee5\u5f8c\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u6ce8\u8cc7\u6551\u52a9\u9280\u884c\uff0c\u9280\u884c\u9ad8\u5c64\u9084\u662f\u62ff\u5230\u5927\u91cf\u734e\u91d1\uff0c\u767e\u59d3\u537b\u662f\u82e6\u4e0d\u582a\u8a00\u3002\u51e1\u6b64\u7a2e\u7a2e\u4ee4\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u6c11\u5c0d\u65bc\u6240\u8b02\u300c\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u5834\u300d\u5236\u5ea6\u662f\u5426\u516c\u5e73\u611f\u5230\u5b58\u7591\uff0c\u6545\u6709\u7ba1\u6cbb\u5171\u8b58\u5d29\u58de\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\u3002\u9019\u4e5f\u4ee3\u8868\u5e02\u6c11\u5c0d\u73fe\u72c0\u6975\u5176\u4e0d\u6eff\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u8da8\u5411\u81ea\u7136\u6703\u5169\u6975\u5316\uff0c\u4e2d\u9593\u9078\u6c11\u81ea\u7136\u6bd4\u8f03\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u539f\u6587\uff1aHow Donald Trump could win &#8211; and why \u539f\u8f09\u65bc\u534a\u5cf6\u96fb\u8996\u53f0\u65b0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8209,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[92,211,195,213],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cusp.hk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4841"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cusp.hk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cusp.hk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cusp.hk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cusp.hk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4841"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cusp.hk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4841\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cusp.hk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8209"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cusp.hk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4841"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cusp.hk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4841"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cusp.hk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4841"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}